1986年石油价格战及其对当前市场的启示

The price war in 1986 and its enlightenments

1986年石油价格战是最具典型意义的一次"反向石油危机"。这次"反向石油危机"并非沙特阿拉伯及欧佩克增产所致,而是由需求危机所引发。实际上,沙特阿拉伯与欧佩克增产早在1985年四季度就已调整到位,而在1986年,沙特阿拉伯或欧佩克的产量调整与国际油价变化呈现一定的正相关关系。据1986年价格战期间产油国的表现判断,在当前极端市场环境下,产油国集体被动减产不可避免,但在严重的财政赤字压力下,"欧佩克+"减产必然缺乏纪律性,边际油田退出以及需求回暖所带来的市场空间会很快被产油国增产所填补。除非石油需求恢复到危机爆发前的水平,否则产油国的竞争性行为将会把国际油价长期压制在较低水平。

The price war in 1986 was the most typical "Reverse Oil Crisis",which was not triggered by Saudi Arabia and OPEC production increasing but incurred by the demand Crisis.Actually,both Saudi Arabia and OPEC had already increased their production at the 4th quarter of 1985 and the output adjustment of Saudi Arabia and OPEC also showed a certain positive correlation with the change of international oil prices in 1986.Based on the actual performance of oil-producing countries during that war,collective and passive production cuts among oil producing countries will be inevitable under the current extreme environment.While there will be inevitably a lack of discipline for "OPEC +" production cuts,and the market space created by the withdrawal of marginal oil fields and the recovery of demand will soon be filled by the increase of oil producers under the pressure of government finance imbalance.Unless oil demand returns to the level of pre-crisis,producers’ competitive behavior will keep international prices low for a long time.