中国天然气发电产业发展现状及展望

Status and prospect of gas power generation industry in China

中国燃气发电装机及发电量占比较小,发电用气占比低于全球平均水平;发电设备利用小时数较低,平均上网电价较高。当前中国天然气发电产业面临的挑战包括:政策体系尚不健全,产业定位不清晰;天然气资源保障存在不确定性;气电燃料与设备运维成本偏高;上网电价的定价机制尚待理顺;电力市场改革快速推进,市场竞争更加激烈。中国电力需求将延续增长态势,电源结构向低碳转型;中国天然气行业处于高速发展期,气源供应保障能力进一步提升;供给宽松期叠加市场化改革加速期,促进发电用气成本下降;燃气发电电力工程造价呈下降趋势,这些都是天然气发电产业的机遇。展望"十四五"期间,实现"十三五"气电装机规划目标存在较大难度;受经济性制约,"十四五"期间气电发展节奏的不确定性较大;生态环境约束背景下,中长期天然气发电发展空间依然广阔;中国天然气发电产业发展路径将呈现多元化趋势。

China’s gas installed generating capacity and generating capacity account for a relatively small proportion in which is lower than the global average and power generation equipment has lower utilization hours as well as higher average feed-in tariff.The current challenges of China’s gas power generation industry include imperfect policy system & unclear industry orientation,several uncertainties in the security of natural gas resources,relatively high costs of fuel and equipment operation and maintenance,the imperfect pricing mechanism of feed-in tariff,and fiercer market competition due to the rapid progress of electricity market reform.Opportunities for the natural gas power generation industry in China can be also concluded as the domestic power demand will continue to grow,power supply structure to low-carbon transformation,the natural gas industry is in the period of rapid development,and the gas supply guarantee is further improved,the gas cost of power generation and engineering cost of gas power generation projects will be reduced during the period of loose supply and the acceleration of market reform.Looking forward to the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan,it is difficult to realize the goal of the 13th Five-Year Plan for gas and electricity installation.Due to economic constraints,the development rhythm of gas and electricity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is uncertain.Under the constraint of ecological environment,the development space of medium and long term natural gas power generation is still wide.The development path of China’s natural gas power generation industry will present a diversified trend.