家庭杠杆率的生育效应及其城乡差异--基于扩展OLG模型的实证检验

The Effect of Household Leverage Ratio on Urban and Rural Fertility:An Empirical Test Based on Generalized OLG Model

从21世纪初开始,中国家庭杠杆率呈现不断上升的发展趋势。家庭杠杆率的上升直接影响家庭消费和生育等经济行为。通过构建家庭生育的扩展OLG模型,利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据对家庭杠杆率对城乡居民家庭生育的影响进行了实证分析。实证结果发现家庭杠杆率存在生育效应:(1)家庭杠杆率降低了城乡家庭的分孩次生育水平,其中住房负债杠杆率的影响更大;(2)家庭杠杆率对城乡家庭生育的影响存在异质性,即对城镇家庭和只有一套住房家庭的生育水平影响更为显著;(3)家庭杠杆率推迟了城乡妇女初育年龄,导致城乡家庭生育孩子数量进一步减少。在理论与实证分析基础上,对合理防控家庭杠杆率的过快增长以及降低家庭杠杆率生育效应的公共政策选择进行了讨论。

Since the beginning of this century,the leverage ratio of household has been rapidly rising in China.The household leverage ratio has a significant impact on the household consumption and childbearing activities.This paper constructs a generalized OLG model of family fertility to empirically test the influence of household leverage ratio on fertility using the data from CFPS.The empirical results show as follows:Firstly,leverage ratio has significant negative influence on the parity-specific fertility of urban and rural households.The housing leverage ratio shows a greater impact.Secondly,there is heterogeneity in the effect of leverage ratio on fertility:urban families and families with only one house are more likely to be affected.Thirdly,the age at first birth will also significantly increase with the increase of leverage ratio,through which leverage ratio will further reduce lifetime fertility rate.Finally,this paper discusses the public policy options for reducing the fertility effect of household leverage in China.