河北省承德市发生鼠疫疫情的风险评估

Risk assessment of plague outbreak in Chengde City,Hebei Province

目的对承德市鼠疫疫情开展风险评估,提出科学有效的鼠疫防控措施和管理建议。方法采用专家会商法和风险矩阵分析法,识别鼠疫发生的危险因素,对各种鼠疫疫情发生的可能性和后果严重性进行分级,然后将分级分值列入风险矩阵中进行分析,得出风险水平。结果承德市发生输入性鼠间鼠疫的风险分值为9,风险水平为M,发生鼠间鼠疫疫情流行的风险分值为6,风险水平为M,发生人间鼠疫疫情的风险分值为8,风险水平为M。结论承德市很有可能发生输入性鼠间鼠疫,但不太可能出现鼠间鼠疫疫情流行和人间鼠疫疫情。应强化落实鼠疫防控的综合措施,防止鼠疫疫情的发生和流行。

Objective To carry out the risk assessment of plague epidemic situation in Chengde City,so as to put forward scientific and effective control measures and management suggestions.Methods By means of expert consultation and risk matrix analysis,the risk factors of plague were identified,the possibility and severity of plague outbreak were classified,and then the risk level was determined by the classification score.Results The risk score for the occurrence of imported murine plague in Chengde City was 9,and the risk level was M.The risk score for the occurrence of murine plague epidemic was 6,and the risk level was M.The risk score for the occurrence of human plague epidemic was 8,and the risk level was M.Conclusion Imported murine plague is very likely to occur in Chengde City,but it is unlikely that there will be an epidemic of murine plague and human plague.The comprehensive measures for the prevention and control of plague should be strengthened to prevent the occurrence and epidemic of plague.