对当前中美“脱钩论”的观察与思考

Observing and Reflecting on the Current"Decoupling Theory"Between China and the U.S.

"脱钩"似乎成为时下中美关系叙事的高频用词。有舆论甚至认为,在中美战略竞争全面加剧背景下,中美关系或将进入全面"脱钩"阶段。作为全球第一、第二大经济体,"脱钩"不仅对中美关系产生深远影响,也势必对现存国际秩序乃至全球化走向形成重大冲击。在充满不确定性的百年"大变局"中,如何看待、评估中美关系的走向?中美"脱钩论"在一定程度上反映了当前中美关系正在发生的深刻复杂变化,在某些领域,如航天、5G通信以及与国家安全相关的具引领性的高科技领域,中美之间存在并行甚至加剧彼此独立发展的势态前景,但全经济、全金融脱钩亦是美国不情愿看到的前景,而且时下并不具备全面"脱钩"甚至重回冷战时期"两个平行世界"的基础和条件。中国可以从最坏处着想,但不排除争取最好结果的任何努力。

"Decoupling"seems to have become a hot word in the narrative of Sino-US relations.Some people even think that under the background of full aggravation of strategic competition between China and the US,their relations may enter the stage of all-round"decoupling".As the world's largest two econo mies,"decoupling"not only has a profound in fluence on the Sino-US relations,but is also bound to cause a major impact to the existing international order and even the trend of globalization.Facing the"great changes"unseen in a century how should China view and evaluate the trend of Sino-US relations?To some extent,the"decoupling theory"reflects the profound and complex changes taking place surrounding the current Sino-US relations.In some fields,such as aerospace,5g comm unications and other leading high-tech industries related to nati onal security there is a prospect of parallel or even independent development between China and the US.However,the decoupling of the entire economy and finance is also what the US is reluctant to see.At present,there is no basis or conditions for all-round"decoupling"or even returning to the"two parallel worlds"during the Cold War.China can prepare for the worst,but it should not stop any effort to obtain the best result.