人民币国际化对中国OFDI的影响研究——基于“一带一路”沿线37国实证检验

Research on the Impact of RMB Internationalization on Chinese OFDI——An Empirical Test Based on 37 Countries along the“Belt and Road”

文章重点着眼于人民币国际计价和支付功能,构建了加权指数测度人民币国际化水平,并采用固定效应模型对2009—2017年度宏观数据进行实证分析,探讨人民币国际化对中国OFDI的影响,实证结果表明,人民币国际化对中国在“一带一路”沿线国家的投资具有显著促进作用,是中国OFDI的重要驱动力,控制变量中的东道国人口、东道国GDP发展速度也对中国OFDI具有正向效应,中国OFDI的市场寻求动机明显,受运输成本的影响,中国与东道国的经济距离对中国OFDI存在抑制作用。为进一步深化金融体制改革,推动人民币国际化进程,促使中国资本在沿线国家的健康可持续流动,我们应该采取以下措施:积极稳妥推进人民币国际化进程;继续深化国内金融市场改革,有效利用“深港通”和“沪港通”促进人民币国际化;加强与“一带一路”沿线国家的投融资机制合作。

This paper focuses on the international pricing and payment functions of RMB,constructs a weighted index to measure the internationalization level of RMB,and uses the fixed effect model to empirically analyze the macro data of 2009-2017 to explore the impact of RMB internationalization on Chinese OFDI.The empirical results show that the RMB internationalization has significantly promoted Chinese investment in countries along the“Belt and Road”and is an important driving force for Chinese OFDI.The population and the GDP growth rate of the host country in the control variables also have positive effect on Chinese OFDI,which has obvious market-seeking motives.Due to the transportation cost,the economic distance between China and the host country has an inhibitory effect on Chinese OFDI.In order to further deepen the reform of the financial system and to promote the RMB internationalization,and promote the healthy and sustainable flow of Chinese capital along the route,we should take the following measures:steadily promote the RMB internationalization;continue to deepen the reform of the domestic financial market and effectively use the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect to promote the RMB internationalization;strengthen cooperation mechanism of the investment and financing with countries along the Belt and Road.