女性的政治地位与出生人口性别比——基于1950—2000年县级数据的实证研究

Women’s Political Status and the Sex Ratio in the Population at Birth——An Empirical Study Based on County-Level Data 1950-2000

妇女解放是中国共产党领导的人民解放事业的重要宗旨。提高女性的政治地位,是妇女社会福利权益得到改善的基本条件。基于1700余个县的县志、1990年和2000年人口普查以及其他代表性调查的农村数据,关于女性政治地位对于出生人口性别比长期作用的实证研究发现,1950年各县女性党员占比越高,之后50年出生人口中女性的比例越趋于正常。女性16—20岁政治地位的提高,显著增加了她们生育和存活子女中女孩的比例,这在计划生育时代更为显著。人口学的这一研究,首次为中国人民解放事业的长期社会影响,提供了一个侧面的实证历史证据。

Women’s liberation is an important part of the people’s liberation movement led by the Communist Party of China.Improving women’s political status is the basic condition for improving women’s social welfare rights and interests.Based on the data from county annals of more than 1700 counties,censuses in 1990 and 2000,and other representative surveys,we have made an empirical study of the long-term effect of women’s political status on the sex ratio at birth in the population.The research has found that the higher the proportion of female Communist Party members reached in each county in 1950,the more normal would be the ratio of female to male birth rates in the following 50 years.The improved political status of women at the age of 16-20 significantly increased the proportion of surviving female infants to among the children they gave birth to,especially in the era of family planning.This demographic study,for the first time,provides empirical historical evidence from a certain aspect for the long-term social impact of the cause of the Chinese people’s liberation.