中国老年人低就业率成因:与俄罗斯的跨国比较

The Reason for the Low Elderly Employment Rate in China:Comparison with Russia

在老龄化加速和劳动年龄人口下降的背景下,开发我国老年劳动力资源具有重要意义。本文基于1988-2013年住户调查数据,通过与俄罗斯较长时期的跨国比较,发现中国老年人就业率偏低且持续下降,并进一步利用Oaxaca方法分解了就业率下降的贡献来源,由此解释了中国城镇老年人就业率较低的原因。研究发现,文化和制度因素的影响并不显著,而劳动力市场禀赋及其分化才是我国老年人就业率较低且持续下降的主要原因。相对于俄罗斯,中国城镇居民财富积累更快,收入结构更加多元化,再加上年轻外来劳动力涌入形成的挤出效应,带来中国老年人就业意愿和就业竞争力的双重下降,由此就使得中国老年人就业率逐渐降低。因此要打破劳动力市场分割,让老年劳动力顺利实现职业转换和工作岗位转变;改善小微企业营商环境,扩大老年人非正规就业机会;增加老年人职业培训以提高就业竞争力,鼓励获得较高教育技能的老年人工作更长的年限,并成为劳动力市场的重要补充。

It is important to explore the elderly human resource in the background of rapid aging in China.Using the household survey data in China and Russia from 1988 to 2013,we find that China’s elderly employment rate is much lower than its counterpart and the disadvantage even expands in the past 25 years.We then use the Oaxaca method to decompose the contribution sources of the decline in employment rate,thus explaining the reason for the low employment of urban elderly in China.Generally,we argue that the cultural and institutional factors are not sufficient to explain the low employment rate in China,while the labor market and its changes are the main reasons.Compared to Russia,economic growth in China leads to diversified income structure and stable wealth accumulation,while the increasing young migrants crowd out the elderly from the market.The labor market changes lead to decline in the employment willingness and employment competitiveness for the elderly,so it is possible to explain the low and declining employment rate for the elderly in China.Therefore,we should break the labor market segmentation,help the elderly realize job transformation,improve the self-employment environment,increase irregular employment opportunities and employment training for the elderly,encourage the elderly with educational expertise to become an important complement to the labor force in China.