经济承压背景下中国能源经济预测与展望

Forecast and Prospect of China’s Energy Economy under Economic Pressure amid Economic Slowdown

2019年中央经济工作会议强调,中国正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期,经济下行压力不断加大。以此为背景阐述能源经济发展现状,分析重点行业发展前景,通过不同情景下的预测分析,探讨经济承压背景下中国能源经济发展的路径与趋势。根据预测结果,经济承压对各行业的能源消费量存在普遍影响,尤其是煤炭、黑色金属冶炼和汽车行业的能源消费量在未来一段时间将呈下降趋势;在基准情形下,预计到2030年,中国GDP将达到171.97万亿元(2018年不变价水平),能源消费总量约57.09亿吨标准煤,煤炭消费占比将不断下降,清洁能源占比预计达到41.7%。根据预测结果,有针对性地在能源消费结构、能源效率和能源合作方面提出政策建议。

The 2019 central economic working conference emphasized that China is in the critical period of transforming development mode,optimizing economic structure and transforming growth power,and the downward pressure of economy is increasing. Based on this background,this paper expounds the current situation of energy economy development,analyzes the development prospects of key industries,and discusses the path and trend of China’s energy economy development under the background of economic pressure through prediction and analysis under different scenarios. According to the prediction results,the economic pressure has a general impact on the energy consumption of various industries,especially the energy consumption of coal,ferrous metal smelting and automobile industry will decline in the future;under the benchmark situation,China’s GDP is expected to reach 171.97 trillion yuan(constant price level in 2018) by 2030,with a total energy consumption of about 5.709 billion tons of standard coal and coal The share of consumption will continue to decline,and the share of clean energy is expected to reach 41.7%.Finally,according to the prediction results,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on energy consumption structure,energy efficiency and energy cooperation.