中国地质灾害防治成效与问题对策

ACHIEVEMENTS AND COUNTERMEASURES IN RISK REDUCTION OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN CHINA

文章回顾了中国地质灾害调查评价、监测预警、综合防治、应急响应、信息化建设、技术装备、技术标准、学术研究、行业进步和法治化建设等工作业绩。中国地质灾害造成的遇难人数1995~2000年年均死亡失踪1205人,2001~2005年均死亡失踪884人,2006~2010年均死亡失踪776人(2010年数据不含甘肃舟曲县城山洪泥石流造成的1765人死亡失踪),2011~2017年均死亡失踪395人,2018年死亡失踪112人。2001~2010年发生地质灾害总数量194702处,平均1.947万处/年;直接经济损失385.3亿元,平均38.5亿元/年,平均19.8万元/处。2011~2018年发生地质灾害总数量为84718处,平均1.06万处/年;直接经济损失355.7亿元,平均44.5亿元/年,平均41.9万元/处。2001年以来城乡社区直接经济损失占国家GDP的比例不断下降,平均年降率为0.016‰。地质灾害成功预报数量占地质灾害总数的比例从2003的5%上升到2018年的20%左右。经过采取各种减灾措施,城乡社区需要应急避险人数逐渐减少。总结了存在的问题和面临的形势,如防灾文化建设薄弱、法制不健全和直接经济损失统计局限于城乡社区而未覆盖工程建设行业的地质灾害等。提出了地质灾害防治要建立政府、企业、个人、社会(包括保险业)和科技界五位一体的防灾减灾“伙伴”关系等对策。

This paper summarizes the achievements in reduction of geological disasters in China.The areas of the achievements include survey and assessments,monitoring and early warnings,engineering countermeasures,emergency responses,information systems,technical equipment,technical standards,academic research,industry developments and construction of laws.Statistic analysis is used in the paper.Basic data are from national bulletins on geological disasters of P.R.China from 1995 to 2018.They consist of deaths or missing number of people and direct economic losses in a year.The analysis shows that numbers of fatalities by geological disasters are 1205 per year during 1995-2000,884 per year during 2001-2005,776 per year during 2006-2010(without the 1765 deaths from the flood-debris of Aug.8,2010 in Zhouqu city,Gansu province),395 per year during 2011-2017,and only 112 in 2018.During 2001-2010,the 194702 geological disasters caused direct economic loss of 38.53 billion RMB yuan.Averagely,19.47 thousand geological disasters per year and 197.9 thousand RMB yuan loss per time.During 2011-2018,the 84718 geological disasters caused direct economic loss of 35.57 billion RMB yuan.Averagely,10.6 thousand geological disasters per year and 419.9 thousand RMB yuan loss per time.Obviously,the total amount of geological disasters decrease along time,but economic loss increases per time.The proportion of direct economic loss of GDP declined 0.016‰per year since 2001.The prediction accuracy of geological disaster raised from 5%to 20%during 2003-2018.The number of people in urban and rural communities who need emergency hedging decreases.The results show that measurements to reduce geological disasters are prove to be effective.They include geological hazard survey and assessment,monitoring and early warning,geotechnical engineering,relocation and avoidance,emergency response and mitigation management.The paper discusses the current situation and existing problems with geological risk.They include weak disaster reduction culture,immature legal system and limitations of economic loss statistics(not including engineering and construction industry).Finally,the paper proposes a five-in-one partnership for disaster reduction which involves the government,enterprises,individuals,society(including insurance)and academia.