供应链视角下食品质量安全风险预警研究

Food Quality and Safety Risk Early Warning from Perspective of Supply Chain

为提高我国食品质量安全风险的预警水平,从食品供应链视角出发,构建食品质量安全风险预警指标体系.通过在突变模型之中加入BP神经网络,建立了拓展突变模型,经计算得出中国2010年—2017年食品供应链各环节的总风险度,以及预测出我国未来5年的食品质量安全风险水平.研究表明:拓展突变模型适用于所建的食品质量安全预警体系,并能对食品质量安全风险进行有效的预警.我国食品供应链上各环节风险值整体呈下降趋势,但食品销售环节与消费环节的风险现状值及其预测值仍相对较高,需要继续加强对食品销售环节和消费环节的监管与控制.

In order to improve the level of food quality and safety risk early warning in China,an index system of food quality and safety risk early warning was established from the perspective of food supply chain.By adding BP neural network into the catastrophe model,an extended catastrophe model was established.The total risk degree of each link in China’s food supply chain from 2010 to 2017 was calculated,and the risk level of food quality and safety in China in the next five years predicted.The results show that the extended catastrophe model is suitable for the established food quality and safety early warning system and can effectively warn the food quality and safety risk.The risk value of each link in the food supply chain in China is declining as a whole,but the current risk value and its predicted value of the food sales and consumption link are still relatively high.The paper holds that certain supervision and control over food sales and consumption remain to be strengthened.