战场飞行员遇险事件发生规律分析

Patterns of isolated events for pilots during combat operations

目的 探讨作战背景下飞行员遇险事件的发生规律,为未来我军战场飞行员的减员预计提供参考。方法 搜集整理美军近代以来5次历史战争中飞行员遇险事件的发生数据,应用SPSS 22.0软件进行单样本K-S检验,探讨事件发生符合何种概率分布,利用Matlab 2016a软件进行多项式拟合分析,求得飞行员遇险事件发生的拟合函数。结果 数据符合泊松分布的双侧渐进显著性均大于0.10,可认为事件发生符合泊松分布,并求得了越南战争和海湾战争中事件发生的拟合函数。结论 飞行员遇险事件发生符合泊松分布,拟合函数可以为战场飞行员减员预计提供数据支撑。

Objective To explore the pattern of isolated events for military pilots during combat operations in order to contribute to the estimation of attrition rates of pilots in future wars.Methods The data collected from five previous wars involving the US Army was analyzed via 1-sample Kolmogorov-Simonov test with SPSS software,and via polynomial curve fitting with Matlab 2016a software.The probability distribution and the mathematical function of the occurrence of isolated events were obtained.Results When we tested if the data from the past five wars was all in the Poisson distribution,the value of bilateral progressive significance of 1-sample Kolmogorov-Simonov test was greater than 0.10,suggesting that the occurrence of isolated events was in the Poisson distribution.According to polynomial curve fitting results with Matlab 2016a,we obtained the fitting function of the occurrence of isolated events during the Vietnam War and Operation Desert Storm.Conclusion The Poisson distribution can serve as a simple and efficient way to describe the occurrence of such events.The results of polynomial curve fitting lead to two definite functions,which can indicate the frequency of such events in the future.We can make use of the results to estimate the attrition of pilots during actual combat operations,which can help commanders deploy search and rescue resources.