差别定价的产业用地供应策略对产业结构升级的影响--基于中国277个城市的实证分析

Impact of differential pricing strategy of land supply on the upgrading of industrial structure:A study based on the empirical analysis of 277 cities in China

"以地谋发展"模式下,地方政府主导土地配置,采取"低工业、高商住"的产业用地出让策略,实现了产业结构升级和经济增长的目标。然而,中国经济转型期,曾经推动产业结构升级的供地策略可能不再适应新时期发展要求。本文从理论出发,剖析地方政府供地逻辑,分析差别定价的产业用地供应策略在不同经济发展水平下对产业结构升级的影响差异,提出相应假说,基于门槛回归模型,并利用2011-2016年中国277个城市产业用地供应数据进行实证检验。结果表明,产业用地价格差异对产业结构升级的影响会随经济发展水平不同呈非线性关系,随着经济发展水平的提高,差别定价的产业用地供应策略对产业结构升级的影响效应将由正转负;产业用地供应向商住用地倾斜而产生的产业用地结构错配会显著抑制产业结构升级;提高土地出让市场化程度,降低土地财政依赖则有利于提升产业结构。据此本文建议,地方政府在制定产业用地供应策略时,要充分考虑所处的社会经济环境,而在参与土地市场活动时,要明确自身干预经济的局限性,更多地培育有效市场,注重提高土地市场化程度,避免过度依赖土地财政。

Under the land-based development mode, local governments dominate land allocation and adopt the strategy of"low price for industrial land, high price for commercial and residential land"in land transfer, which has achieved the goal of industrial structure upgrading and economic growth in China. However, during China’s economic transition, the land supply strategy that once promoted the upgrading of industrial structure may no longer meet the development requirements of the new era. Through the theoretical analysis of governments’ land supply logic and the effects of differential pricing strategy in land supply on the upgrading of industrial structure at different economic development levels, this study came up with hypotheses and then based on the threshold regression model made an empirical test by using the data of land supply in 277 cities of China from 2011 to 2016. The results show that the influence of land price difference on the upgrading of industrial structure is non-linear due to different economic development levels. The effect of the differential pricing strategy in land supply on the upgrading of industrial structure changes from positive to negative with the improvement of economic development level, and the mismatch of land supply structure caused by inclined supply of commercial and residential land significantly restrains the upgrading of industrial structure, whereas enhancing the marketization of land transfer and lowering the dependence on land finance will promote it. Therefore it is suggested that local governments should fully consider the socioeconomic environment in which they operate when formulating land supply strategies, and identify the limitations of their intervention in the economy,pay attention to cultivating more effective markets, improve the degree of land marketization, and avoid excessive reliance on land finance when participating in land market activities.