新冠肺炎疫情对消费经济的影响及对策分析

Impact of the Covid-19 Epidemic on Consumption Economy and Countermeasures Analysis

新冠肺炎疫情将在未来1至2个季度内从总需求和总供给两个方面改变中国经济的宏观环境。本文通过对“非典”前后的宏观经济和消费形势复盘,并比较新冠肺炎疫情与“非典”疫情分析新冠肺炎疫情对消费经济造成的潜在影响。在宏观经济层面,既包括疫情的客观影响,如社会零售总需求下降、投资放缓、CPI波动、进出口萎缩等;也包括各方采取应对措施后对大环境的改变,包括企业融资环境(货币政策)、税费环境(财政政策)等。在消费经济层面,整体消费所受冲击较大;细分零售行业受影响的类型可分为平稳增长型、增速下滑型和逆市上扬型;超市、专业连锁和多业态零售表现较好。疫情将加速零售商业模式变革,无人配送、下沉市场、“宅经济”等需求结构的改变将重塑未来商业模式。总体而言,尽管消费领域受到疫情的影响最大,但疫情之后的“补偿性消费”会一定程度缓解对全年消费增长所造成的冲击。

The Covid-19 Epidemic will change China's economy through affecting the aggregated demand and supply.The paper compares the economic environment at present and that of SARS in order to define the potential influence of the Covid-19 Epidemic.The potential impact on the macro economy includes the slower growth of consumption and investment,fluctuation of prices,the contraction of export and import.The policy environment will also change in terms of monetary and fiscal policy,which will affect firms'financing and tax paying.The impact on the consumption economy will be significant.First,three modes of the influence on different types of retail industries include moderate,positive and negative.The Epidemic accelerates the revolution of business patterns in China,since the no-man delivery,sinking market and indoors economy have emerged as the new driving force in changing the business models.Although the impact of the Epidemic on consumption seems comparatively the biggest,the compensatory consumption can alleviate it to some extent.