时空尺度差异下疫情严重程度的比较研究

A comparative study of COVID-19 severity in different spatiotemporal scales

抗击新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情,是当下中国的紧急要务,也是全世界的防控重点。作为公共卫生事件的核心构成,评判"疫情是否严重"是社会各界所要面对的首要问题。以数据为基础,分析了新型冠状病毒感染肺炎病例的确诊人数、死亡人数、治愈人数、密切接触者及医学观察人数等信息,论述了疫情的影响范围和蔓延趋势。针对疫情的严重程度,采用比较分析法,从纵向时间和横向空间两个尺度衡量疫情在不同阶段、不同地区的接触率、感染率、确诊率、治愈率和病死率的差异。通过比较研究,论证说明不同时空尺度下疫情严重程度的差异,进一步提出多尺度评估疫情严重程度的要义和建议。

Fighting the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia is an urgent task in China and a major concern in the world. As the core of public health events, the answer to the "severity of the epidemic" is the first question to be faced by all walks of life. Based on the data, this paper discusses the impact range and spread trend of the epidemic. In view of the severity of the epidemic, the difference of contact rate, infection rate, diagnosis rate, cure rate and fatality rate in different stages and regions was measured by comparative analysis. Furthermore, the significance and suggestions for multi-scale assessment of the epidemic severity are put forward.