锰消费规律探讨及中国未来锰需求预测

Analysis of the law of manganese consumption and a prediction about China’s manganese demand

锰是重要的基础性矿产资源,主要应用于钢铁工业。对锰资源需求形势的准确把握,是制定科学合理的锰产业政策及规划的前提。本文分析了美国、日本等典型国家近100年的锰消费历史,发现人均锰资源消费与人均GDP之间存在明显的倒"U"形规律,厘定了锰资源消费的起飞点、转折点和零增长点。同时,还分析了典型国家锰消费与粗钢生产的内在关系,发现两者存在较强的线性关系。本文运用锰消费倒"U"形规律和锰-钢线性关系两种方法预测了未来中国锰的需求量。通过两种方法获得的预测结果相互验证,具有较强的一致性。基于锰需求倒"U"形规律中的参考情境下,判断2016~2017年中国锰消费量已达到峰值,为1 180万t,人均锰消费量为8.4kg/人。最后,对中国未来锰需求进行中长期尺度上的定量预测,为我国未来锰资源开发规模与产业结构调整提供支撑。

Manganese is an important basic raw material and is mainly used in the steel industry.Accurate understanding of the demand situation of manganese resources is the prerequisite for the formulation of scientific and rational manganese industry policies and plans.This paper analyzes the manganese consumption history of the United States,Japan and other typical countries for nearly 100 years,all of which follow the inverted"U"-shaped consumption law,and calibrates three key points in the manganese consumption curve-the take-off point,turning point,and zero-growth point.Meanwhile,the paper analyzes the internal relations of manganese consumption and crude steel production of typical countries,and discovers the existence of a strong linear relationship.Manganese consumption inverted"U"shape laws and manganese-steel linear relationship are used to predict China’s demand for manganese.Mutual authentication of the two methods,the results trend a strong consistency.Based on the demand of manganese inverted"U"shape the law in the reference scenario,the paper estimates the peak of China’s manganese demand is around the year 2016-2017 when the manganese demand is about 11.8 million tons,and lead demand per capita is 8.4 kg,and then the manganese consumption will begin to slow down.In this paper,China’s manganese demand is quantitatively predicted in medium-and long-term scale,which provides support for China’s manganese resource development scale and industrial structure adjustment in the future.