基于组合赋权-集对分析的煤矿煤尘爆炸危险性评价研究

Study on coal dust explosion risk assessment in coal mine based on combination weighting-set pair analysis

针对目前煤尘爆炸危险性评价研究较少、各评价因素选择偏差较大的问题,通过分析煤尘爆炸特性,提出以煤尘可爆性危险、煤尘爆炸浓度危险、点火源危险3个必要条件为一级指标,煤质变异程度、挥发分、水分、灰分等14个二级指标,以层次分析法确定各指标的主观权重,以熵权法确定各指标的客观权重,利用乘法归一化方法对各指标的组合权重进行计算,构建集对分析-组合赋权煤尘爆炸危险性评价模型,并将该模型与已较成熟的改进FAHP模型、模糊事故树模型、灰色聚类评估体系、未确知测度评价模型一同应用于济宁某矿的煤尘爆炸危险性评价过程中,结果显示:集对分析-组合赋权评价模型、改进FAHP模型、灰色聚类评估体系评价结果为一般危险等级,模糊事故树模型的评价结果为较安全等级,集对分析-组合赋权煤尘爆炸危险性评价模型评价结果与改进FAHP模型、灰色聚类评估体系、未确知测度评价模型的评价结果一致,该模型对煤尘爆炸危险的评价具有较好的适用性。

Aiming at the problem that there are few studies on coal dust explosion hazard assessment and the selection of evaluation factors is quite different at present,through analyzing the characteristics of coal dust explosion,the paper puts forward that the three necessary conditions of coal dust explosion hazard,coal dust explosion concentration hazard and ignition source hazard are the first-level indexes,and 14 secondary indexes such as coal quality variation degree,volatile matter,moisture content and ash content are determined by analytic hierarchy process.Subjective weight,the objective weight of each index is determined by the method of entropy weight,the combination weight of each index is calculated by the method of multiplication normalization,and the set pair analysis-combination weighting coal dust explosion risk assessment model is constructed.The model is applied to a mine in Jining together with the mature improved FAHP model,the fuzzy fault tree model,the grey clustering evaluation system and the unascertained measure evaluation model.In the process of coal dust explosion hazard assessment in the mine,the results show that the evaluation results of set pair analysis-combination weighting evaluation model,improved FAHP model and grey clustering evaluation system are general hazard grade,and the evaluation results of fuzzy fault tree model are relatively safe grade.The evaluation results of set pair analysis-combination weighting coal dust explosion hazard assessment model and improved FAHP model,grey clustering evaluation body are set pair analysis-combination weighting coal dust explosion hazard assessment model.The evaluation results of the system and the unascertained measurement evaluation model are consistent,and the model has good applicability to the evaluation of coal dust explosion risk.