柴达木腹地地表温度变化特征分析

ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE HINTERLAND OF QAIDAM BASIN

利用格尔木市观测站1981~2018年地表温度(平均地温、最高地温、最低地温)资料,采用气候倾向率的方法及Mann-Kendall突变检验,对柴达木腹地格尔木地区近38a来地表温度变化趋势及突变年份进行相关分析,结果表明:地表温度随年代而呈极显著升温趋势,但在近8a平均最高地表温度略有降低。地表温度年变化同样呈现出极显著水平的上升趋势,其中,平均最高地表温度的增温率最大,达到1.24℃/10a。在四季中,平均地表温度增加趋势为夏季增温最大,冬季增温最小;最高地表温度为春季增温最大,冬季最小;最低地表温度夏、秋两季增温相同,春季增温最小,均通过了0.01及以上水平的显著性检验,表面增温显著。平均地表温度M-K检验没有突变。用累积距平再次检验时分析得到,平均地表温度的气候突变发生在2003年。最高地表温度及最低地表温度分别在1997年和2010年发生了突变。

Based on the data of surface temperature(mean,maximum and minimum)from the Golmud Observatory(1981-2018),the climate trend rate method and Mann-Kendall mutation test were used Based on the correlation analysis of the trend and the abrupt years of the land surface temperature in the Golmud area of the hinterland of Qaidam Basin in the recent 38 years,the results show that the land surface temperature shows a very significant warming trend with the age But the average maximum surface temperature has decreased slightly in the last 8 years.The annual variation of land surface temperature also shows a very significant upward trend,in which the average maximum land surface temperature increases the most,reaching 1.24°C/10a.In the four seasons,the increase trend of the average surface temperature is the largest in summer and the smallest in winter;the highest in spring and the smallest in winter;the lowest in summer and autumn is the same,but the smallest in spring All the samples passed the significance test of 0.01 and above,and the surface temperature increase was significant.MEAN surface temperature had no mutation in M-K test.The results show that the abrupt change of mean surface temperature occurs in 2003a.The maximum and minimum surface temperatures changed abruptly in 1997a and 2010a,respectively.