数字普惠金融与城乡收入差距:“数字红利”还是“数字鸿沟”

Digital Inclusive Finance and Urban-Rural Income Gap:“Digital Dividend”or“Digital Divide”

基于中国数字普惠金融发展指数和中国劳动力追踪调查(CLDS)匹配数据,通过构建城乡居民家庭信贷门槛模型与使用基于分位数回归的MM分解方法,本文从理论与实证两个角度探讨数字普惠金融的发展对城乡收入差距的影响。研究发现:首先,分位数回归结果显示"数字红利"显著,即数字普惠金融的发展有利于缩小城乡收入差距,且在低分位点处其边际效应更大。其次,对城乡家庭收入差距的MM方法分解结果显示,城乡家庭的收入差距主要源于数字普惠金融发展水平等变量本身的特征差异;城乡两组家庭间的回报差异存在,但主要影响低分位点处的收入差距,对高分位点处的收入差距影响有限;基于RIF的单变量分解表明,数字普惠金融成为继年龄、户主户口状态、受教育水平、家庭规模之后又一影响城乡收入差距的重要因素。最后,影响机制的分析表明,数字普惠金融的发展主要通过增加金融可得性、降低门槛效应这一机制而缩小城乡收入差距。即使替换不同的关键变量进行稳健性检验,本文的研究结论依然成立。

Based on the matching data of China Digital Inclusive Financial Development Index and China Labor Force Tracking Survey(CLDS),by constructing the threshold model of urban and rural household credit and using the MM decomposition method based on quantile regression,this article explores the impact of the development of digital inclusive finance on the urban-rural income gap from the theoretical and empirical perspective.The study finds that:First,the quantile regression results show that the"digital dividend"is significant,that is,the development of digital inclusive finance is conducive to narrowing the urban-rural income gap,and its marginal effect is greater at the low quantile.Second,the decomposition results of the MM method for the income gap between urban and rural households show that the income gap between urban and rural households is mainly due to differences in the characteristics of variables such as digital inclusive financial development.The difference in returns between the urban and rural families exists,but it mainly affects the income gap at the low quantile and has a limited impact on the income gap at the high quantile.The univariate decomposition based on RIF shows that digital inclusive finance has become another important factor influencing the urban-rural income gap after age,household head status,education level,and family size.Finally,the analysis of the impact mechanism shows that the development of digital inclusive finance mainly narrows the urban-rural income gap by increasing financial availability and lowering the threshold effect.Even if different key variables are substituted for the robustness test,the conclusion of this study is still valid.