生态位模型及其在寄生虫病传播风险研究中的应用

Ecological niche modeling and its applications in research on transmission risks of parasitic diseases

生态位模型是利用物种分布数据和相关环境变量,根据一定的算法建模分析物种生态需求,以预测不同时空下物种的实际分布和潜在分布。生态位建模方法越来越多地应用于传染病传播风险的预测研究,然而对其准确合理地运用需建立在理解生态位建模基本原理和特点的基础上。本文基于寄生虫病传播风险研究的角度,从生态位概念出发介绍了生态位模型的理论基础、数据获取与变量选择、模型算法、模型性能的评价手段及其在寄生虫病传播风险研究中的应用。

Ecological niche modeling is developed based on geographic distribution data and associated environmental variables of the species in concern by applying algorithmic approaches to analyze the niche requirements of the species,for predicting the actual and potential distributions of a particular species under different spatiotemporal conditions.Ecological niche modeling is becoming more and more popular in research predicting the transmission risks of infectious diseases.However,the accurate and rational use of the niche modeling relies on fully understanding of the basic principles and characteristics of the modeling.From the view point of studying risks of parasitic diseases transmission,and the concept of ecological niche,this review introduces essential aspects of the ecological niche modeling including the theoretical basis,data collection and variables selection,modeling algorithm,approaches to evaluate the modeling property,and its applications in predicting transmission risks of parasitic diseases.