分级诊疗前后我国卫生资源配置公平性对比及时间序列模型预测

Comparison and Prediction of Fairness of Health Resources in China Before and After Hierarchical Medical Care Based on ARIMA Model

目的:对比分级诊疗制度实施前后我国卫生资源配置公平性的差异并通过ARIMA模型预测卫生资源配置的公平性变化情况。方法:利用2002-2016年我国卫生资源的数据计算泰尔指数,建立ARIMA模型预测2017-2022年我国卫生资源泰尔指数的变化情况。结果:根据ARIMA(1,1,1)、(1,1,1)、(5,1,1)、(1,1,2)、(1,1,1)分别预测注册护士数、床位数、卫生技术人员数、执业(助理)医师数和卫生机构数的泰尔指数并进行对比,发现均有不同程度的降低。结论:分级诊疗制度实施后卫生资源公平性得到整体改善;卫生机构配置公平性尚需提升;卫生资源配置的地区内差异依旧显著。

Objective:To compare the fairness of health resource allocation before and after the implementation of the hierarchical medical system and predict the fairness of health resource allocation in the next five years through the ARIMA model.Methods:Using the data of China's health resources from 2002 to 2016,to calculate the Theil index and establish an ARIMA model to predict the changes of China's health resources in the 2017-2022.Results:Predicting and comparing the number of registered nurses,bed number,health according to ARIMA(1,1,1),(1,1,1),(5,1,1)(1,1,2),(1,1,1)technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians,the Theil index of health institutions.It was found to have varying degrees of decline.Conclusion:The fairness of health resources after the implementation of the hierarchical medical system has been improved;the fairness of the allocation of health institutions needs to be improved;the regional differences in the allocation of health resources are still significant.