基于移动平均预测限预判新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情趋势与适时风险分级

Predicting the trend of the COVID-19 outbreak and timely grading the current risk level of epidemic based on moving average prediction limits

目的·建立一种数据驱动的实用方法预测新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)疫情的演变趋势、跟踪预判疫区适时风险分级,为精准防控策略提供量化依据。方法·基于移动平均法建立移动平均预测限(moving average prediction limit,MAPL)方法。采用既往严重急性呼吸综合征(severe acute respiratory syndrome,SARS)疫情数据验证MAPL方法对疫情趋势和风险预判的实用性。跟踪COVID-19疫情从2020年1月16日起的官方公布数据,建立相应MAPL进行适时疫情预判与风险评估。结果·基于MAPL方法分析显示,2020年2月初全国COVID-19疫情达到峰值。经过积极防控,2月中旬到3月中旬全国疫情整体呈下降趋势。与湖北地区相比,非湖北地区2月中旬新增病例数下降速度快,但之后又有小幅增长。3月以来境外输入性风险的分析提示,近阶段存在中高等疫情输入性风险,建议出入境口岸采取相应防控措施,避免境外输入病例引起疫情再次蔓延。结论·MAPL方法可以辅助判断新发传染病流行发展趋势并及时预测疫区风险水平。各疫区可结合当地实际与疫情风险分级,规划落实差异化精准防控策略。3月份以来应注重境外输入性风险的防控。

Objective·To establish a practical data-driven method that helps predict the evolutionary trend of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)epidemic,track and prejudge the current risk classification of the epidemic area,and provide a quantitative evidence for precision prevention and control strategies.Methods·A moving average prediction limit(MAPL)method was established based on the moving average method.The previous severe acute respiratory syndrome(SARS)epidemic data was used to verify the practicability of the MAPL method for predicting epidemic trends and quantitative risk.By tracking the COVID-19 outbreak epidemic data publicly reported since January 16,2020,the MAPL method was used for timely epidemic trend prediction and the risk classification.Results·According to the MAPL analysis,the national epidemic of COVID-19 peaked in early February 2020.After active prevention and control in early stages,the overall epidemic situation in the country showed a downward trend from mid-February to mid-March.Compared with Hubei Province,the number of new cases in non-Hubei region declined rapidly in mid-February,but then increased slightly.The analysis of imported cases since March showed that there was a medium to high level of epidemic import risk in the near future.It is recommended to take corresponding prevention and control measures to prevent the epidemic from spreading again.Conclusion·The MAPL method can assist in judging the epidemic trend of emerging infectious diseases and predicting the risk levels in a timely manner.Each epidemic district may implement a differentiated precision prevention and control strategies according to the local classification of epidemic risk.Since March,attention should be paid to the prevention and control of imported risks.