新一轮页岩油气革命背景下的国际油价走势分析

Analysis on International Oil Price Trend at Background of New Round of Shale Oil and Gas Revolution

随着美国页岩油气革命的重点由页岩气逐渐转向页岩油,页岩油气革命进入新阶段。页岩油成为美国石油储产量增长的主体,同时页岩油勘探开发效益也持续改进,这是新一轮页岩油气革命最显著的特点。大石油公司正在加大对页岩油气的投资,未来美国页岩油产量新增长极有可能来自国际大石油公司。页岩油产量增长支撑美国石油产量稳中有升,进一步增强了美国在国际石油市场的话语权。新一轮页岩油气革命背景下,石油供需基本面因素对油价的影响进一步增大,中长期国际油价走势更多地取决于原油产量增量部分成本,而中长期内页岩油将引领世界石油产量增长,页岩油事实上已成为直接影响国际油价的重要因素。基于供需基本面因素,本着维持油气勘探开发产业正常运营的基本思路来判断,近中期油价应总体维持在40~50美元/bbl,虽然可能会出现不可预见的黑天鹅事件(如新冠肺炎疫情)导致油价短期剧烈波动,但不会改变中长期趋势,全球石油产业或将步入中低油价时代。

Shale oil and gas revolution has entered into new stage after the emphasis of American shale oil and gas revolution changes from shale gas to shale oil.Shale oil contributes to main increasing of reserves and production of American oil,and benefit in exploration and production of shale oil is increasing continuously.Both of them are the most outstanding characteristics of new round of shale oil and gas revolution.Major oil companies are spending more on the shale oil and gas,and the future increase in American shale oil production comes from the international major oil companies probably.The increase in the shale oil production holds the stable and increasing production of American oil,and it won more say for America at the international oil market.At the background of new round of shale oil and gas revolution,the factors of supply-demand fundamentals of crude oil have more influence on oil price,and international oil price trend in medium-long terms more depends on the cost of increased oil production.In the medium-long terms,the shale oil will lead the increase of world oil production,and it has become the important factor influencing the international oil price.Based on the supply-demand fundamentals factors,the oil price at early and medium terms should be 40-50 US $/bbl in general if the industry of oil and gas exploration and production runs normally.Unforeseen black swan event(i.e. novel corona virus pneumonia) appeared probably may result in short-term fluctuation of the oil price,but the oil price trend in medium-long term will not change,and the world oil industry may be into the age of medium-low oil price.