循证方法的情报分析研究进展及其对有效风险沟通的借鉴

Research Review on Evidence-based Intelligence Analysis and its References for Effective Risk Communication

[目的/意义]对情报中不确定内容的错误解码会对决策产生严重的消极影响。将循证方法引入情报分析,通过将语言概率量化为数字概率有利于提升情报质量,促进有效决策,并可以为有效的风险沟通提供借鉴。[方法/过程]在理解循证方法在情报分析中应用的基础上,通过总结美国与英国情报机构编制的“标准化词典”以及新进的相关研究,梳理不同文本语词所代表的数字概率,并探讨这种方式对有效风险沟通的借鉴。[结果/结论]情报分析中数字概率的运用不仅可以有效地传递情报内容的不确定性,同时也可以提高风险沟通的有效性,有利于将情报的不确定性内容转化为清晰的表达,以做出相对确定的判断,进而实现应对风险的有效决策。循证方法的情报分析提供了有效风险沟通的若干策略,但其具体应用还有若干问题需要解决。

[Purpose/Significance]Decoding the uncertainty of intelligence in a wrong way has a deleterious impact on decision-making.Therefore,using evidence-based approach to analyze intelligence,which quantifies the linguistic probabilities,has its advantage in improving the quality of intelligence and offering reference to risk communication.[Method/Process]Based on the fact that the evidence-based approach has been used in intelligence analysis,this paper indicates that standardized lexicons developed by US and UK intelligence agencies and research associated with communicating uncertainty in intelligence analysis could provide the numerical probability for different linguistic phrases.And then,this paper discusses that the method can be utilized in risk communication.[Result/Conclusion]Decoding the uncertainty into quantified expression in intelligence analysis improves the effectiveness in risk communication.Certain judgement and effective decision-making can be conducted following the method in the situation of uncertain intelligence.Strategies for effective risk communication are developed,but some problems need to be solved in future practice.