基于综合集成法和因子分析法的基础设施PPP项目风险研究

Research on Infrastructure PPP Project Risk Based on Meta-synthesis Approach and Factor Analysis

为研究PPP项目风险因素之间的内在联系和风险重要程度,提出了基于综合集成法和因子分析法的PPP项目风险因素研究方法,该方法将综合集成法中人机交互的思想与因子分析法结合,系统地识别出29个风险因素,并根据因素间的相关性将这些风险因素划分为10大类,在此基础上确定了PPP项目实施中的关键风险,分别为政府决策失误风险、延迟风险、生态环境风险、技术风险、法律环境变化风险、政府官员腐败风险、利率风险、政府信用风险、市场竞争风险和自然灾害风险,最后针对这些关键风险因素提出风险管控建议。

In order to explore the internal connection and the importance of PPP project risk factors,a method of PPP project risk factors which is based on meta-synthesis and factor analysis(FA)is proposed.The method combines the idea of human-computer interaction in the Meta-synthesis with factor analysis.The method systematically identifies 29 risk factorsand according to the correlation between the factors,these risk factors are divided into 10 categories.On this basis,the key risks in the project implementation of PPP projects were determined,including the risk of political decision-making mistakes,extension risk,environmental risk,technical risk,legal environment change risk,government official corruption risk,interest rate risk,government commitment risk,market competition riskand natural disaster risk.Finally,this research is directed against those risk factors providing relevant suggestions for risks controlling.