基于最大熵模型对蓝舌病病毒传播媒介库蠓在中国分布特征的研究

Study on the geographical distribution of Culicoides vectors for Bluetongue virus in China using a maximum entropy model

蓝舌病是由蓝舌病毒(BTV)引起的一种非接触性传染病,主要侵害反刍动物,库蠓是蓝舌病毒传播最重要的媒介生物。本研究基于尖喙库蠓地理分布数据及环境数据,利用最大熵生态位模型(MaxEnt)对尖喙库蠓在中国大陆的分布情况进行了预测,并评估了环境变量对尖喙库蠓分布的影响。结果显示,最适合尖喙库蠓生存的地区主要分布在中国的西北和东北部分地区,以及南方的大部分地区;Jackknife分析结果显示,土壤有效水含量(25%)、最冷月最低温(18.1%)、最干月降雨量(18%)、平均最大风速(13.2%)是影响尖喙库蠓分布最主要的4个环境因子,其中最干月降雨量是模型中影响尖喙库蠓分布的最重要环境变量。本研究首次将这种生态位模型用于预测中国库蠓的分布,为蓝舌病的预防控制工作提供参考依据,同时也为库蠓监测管理提供信息。

Bluetongue is a non-contact infectious disease caused by Bluetongue virus(BTV), which infects wild and domestic ruminants worldwide. Culicoides are the most important vectors for Bluetongue virus transmission. Based on the geographical distribution data and environmental data of C. schultzei, the Maximum Entropy Niche model(MaxEnt) was used to predict the distribution of C. schultzei in China's Mainland, and the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of C. schultzei was evaluated. The results showed that the most suitable areas for C. schultzei were mainly distributed in northwest China, Northeast China and most parts of south China. The available water content in soil(25%), the lowest temperature in the coldest month(18.1%),precipitation in the driest month(18%) and the average maximum wind speed(13.2%) were the four major environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. schultzei. Among them, precipitation in the driest month was the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of C. schultzei in the model. This niche model was used for the first time to predict the distribution of the C. schultzei in China, which can provide evidence for Bluetongue prevention and control, and also to provide useful information for the monitoring and management of Culicoides.