博鳌亚洲论坛2018年年会期间空气质量预报保障技术研究

Research on Air Quality Forecast and Guarantee Technology of Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference

为了做好博鳌亚洲论坛2018年年会期间的空气质量保障工作,通过综合分析2015-2017年同期的监测数据及其气象条件,依托空气质量多模式数值预报系统,以专家组现场会商研判的方式开展了空气质量预报保障工作。结果显示,海口市、三亚市和博鳌镇在会议期间空气质量保持优良,每日AQI预报结果在±10的准确率为72. 2%,有效支撑了博论坛期间空气质量保障工作。会议期间文昌区域站和五指山背景站出现超标现象,超标污染物均为O3,外来污染传输是今后博鳌论坛保障中需重点关注的关键影响因素。

In order to do a good job in the air quality assurance during the Boao Forum for Asia 2018 annual conference,this study carried out the air quality assurance work by comprehensively analyzing the monitoring data and meteorological conditions of the same period from 2015 to 2017,relying on the air quality multi-mode numerical prediction system,and by the way of on-site consultation and study of the expert group. The results showed that the air quality of Haikou,Sanya and Boao town will remains excellent during the conference,and the accuracy of daily AQI forecast results within plus or minus 10 was 72. 2%,which effectively supported the air quality assurance work during the Boao Forum. During the 2018 Forum,Wenchang Regional Station and Wuzhishan Background Station both will exceed the standard,and the chief pollutant is ozone. The transmission of external pollution will become the key factor to be focused on in the future Boao Forum safeguard.