精细化预报在首届中国国际进口博览会空气质量保障工作中的应用

Application of Refined Forecast in Air Quality Guarantee Forecast During the First China International Import EXPO

重大活动保障预报不同于业务预报,其核心是服务管控,并注重提前预报的时效性和精细化。该文总结了首届中国国际进口博览会空气质量保障预报工作的实践经验:在历次保障预报联合会商组织架构的基础上,完善联合会商机制,强调预报保障主体单位与支持单位的预报工作内容和职责的区分,通过数值模式的优化改进、针对性开展关键气象因素专题等多种技术手段不断提升预报精准度,并创新应用历史相似污染案例库挖掘和匹配分析,注重预报效果评估以及时总结预报经验,不断提升预报的准确性,为管理决策提供强有力的技术支撑。

Guarantee forecast for major events is different from the business air quality forecast. The core of it is to serve air pollution management and control,and pays attention to the timeliness and refinement of advance forecast. This paper summarized and discussed the experiences of air quality guarantee forecast for the first China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai. It drew experiences from the air quality guarantee for previous major events and improved the forecast consulting mechanism to emphasis on the distinction between the forecasting work duties of the main unit and the supporting unit. Through the optimization and improvement of numerical models,study on the influence of key meteorological factors on air pollutants and other technical methods,as well as the innovative application of historical similar pollution case database mining and matching analysis,focus on forecasting effect evaluation,it constantly improved the accuracy of forecast,which provided strong technical support for management decisions.