基于易损性油气管道第三方施工失效概率分析

FAILURE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF OIL AND GAS PIPELINES UNDER THIRD-PARTY CONSTRUCTION BASED ON VULNERABILITY THEORY

随着油气管道第三方施工损伤的日益严重,有必要对第三方施工下管道的失效可能性进行分析,为此提出了一种基于易损性理论的定量失效概率计算方法。根据“4M”系统建立危险因素评价体系,采用改进层次分析法计算因素权重与专家评判能力权重,引入三角模糊数量化专家评判语言,通过概率化模糊数得到事件危险概率;选取外载荷、管道直径、管道壁厚、管道埋深和服役年限5个参数,从抗危害能力和危害强度两方面建立易损函数,运用结构可靠性理论的计算方法可得到易损概率。实例分析表明:该计算方法能有效地计算第三方施工下管道的失效概率,可为油气管道的安全管理提供一定技术支持。

The third-party construction damage of oil and gas pipeline is becoming more and more serious.It is necessary to analyze the failure probability of pipelines under third-party construction.So a quantitative failure probability calculation method based on vulnerability theory was proposed.A risk factor evaluation system was set up based on 4M system,the analytic hierarchy process was used to calculate the weights of factors and the weights of expert judgment ability,the expert judgment language was quantized by introducing triangular fuzzy number,and the probability of event risk was obtained by calculating the fuzzy number.Five parameters including external load,pipe diameter,pipe wall thickness,pipeline burial depth and service life were selected to establish vulnerability function from the two aspects of hazard resistance and hazard intensity.The probability of vulnerability was calculated by structural reliability theory.The example analysis shows that this calculation method can effectively calculate the failure probability of pipelines under third-party construction,and provide some technical support for the safety management of oil and gas pipelines.