考虑风电出力预测误差的电力系统多目标动态优化调度策略研究

Research on Multi-objective Dynamic Optimal Dispatching Strategy of Power System Considering Wind Power Output Prediction Error

本文提出一种考虑风电出力预测误差的电力系统多目标动态优化调度策略。该策略首先在风速-风电功率预测方法基础上,分析了基于风电场功率特性的风电场预测误差的概率分布特征,实现功率预测误差的精细化建模;然后建立考虑总环境污染成本及机组成本的多目标动态优化调度模型,并采用启发式搜索的粒子群算法对调度模型进行优化求解。最后以包含火电机组和大型风电场的供电系统为例进行仿真,结果表明所提方法能够为调度运行人员提供有效的调度决策信息。

In this paper, a multi-objective dynamic optimal dispatching strategy for power system considering the error of wind power output prediction is proposed. Firstly, on the basis of wind speed-wind power prediction method, the probability distribution characteristics of wind farm prediction errors based on the power characteristics of wind farms are analyzed, and the precise modeling of power prediction errors is realized. Then a multi-objective dynamic optimal dispatching model considering the total environmental pollution cost and unit cost is established, and a heuristic search particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the dispatching model. Finally, a power supply system including thermal power units and large wind farms is simulated. The results show that the proposed method can provide effective dispatching decision information for dispatching operators.