重大水利枢纽工程社会稳定风险评估

Risk Assessment of Social Stability Caused by Large Hydro-juncture Project

为了对重大水利枢纽工程社会稳定风险进行合理评估和科学管控,在调研分析基础上,首先通过问卷可靠性检验建立评估指标体系;接着采用主成分综合评价法计算风险影响程度;然后构建评估的未确知测度模型;最后,借助雷达模型制定风险化解策略。利用模型对重大水利枢纽工程社会稳定风险做出预估,分析结果中风险评估指标所代表的问题,并基于评估结果对工程的社会稳定风险提出管控建议。通过实际案例研究分析,落实风险化解措施后,该工程社会稳定风险等级转化为低等、可控;提出了按照最敏感、较敏感、一般敏感和不敏感顺序进行次序化风险管控的化解策略,优先解决移民安置方案和生态环境2方面的问题;对重大水利枢纽工程社会稳定风险管理提出了4条建议。

The aim of this research is to reasonably assess and scientifically control the social stability risks caused by the construction of large hydro-juncture project.First of all,an assessment index system was established based on questionnaire reliability test;secondly,the degree of risk impact was calculated using principal component method;and then an unascertained measure model for the assessment was built;finally,risk mitigation strategies were developed using radar model.The present model was applied to assess the social stability risks of a large hydropower project in Shaanxi Province as a case study.Problems represented by the risk assessment indicators in the results were analyzed,and suggestions for managing and controlling the social stability risks were put forward.After risk mitigation measures were implemented,the social stability turned to be controllable at low risk.In addition,a sequential risk mitigation strategy was put forward in the order of the most sensitive,sensitive,generally sensitive,and insensitive,giving priority to solving problems of migration resettlement and ecological environment.Four suggestions were also put forward for the risk management of large hydro-junctures.