全面的住房改革能促进住房平等吗?——来自贵阳市自然实验的证据

Can Comprehensive Housing Reform Promote Housing Equality?:Evidence from Natural Experiments in Guiyang

自1998年开始实施的以住房分配货币化为导向的中国住房制度改革取得了很大成绩,同时还有一些经验教训需要总结。此次房改实施了两种不同的具体方案:一种是在全国绝大部分地区推行的渐进方式的房改方案;另一种是在贵州省试点的全面方式的房改方案。两者的主要差别在于是否进行公房存量资产的货币化重新分配。贵州省贵阳市的房改实践为研究两种不同房改方案对住房平等的影响提供了独特的自然实验证据。利用1989—2011年中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据和相关城市统计年鉴数据,采用PSM-DID模型等检验不同房改方案对住房平等的影响差异的结果表明,与渐进方式相比,全面方式的房改方案更能提高住房消费水平,促进房地产投资,使得房价相对稳定,使得住房面积不平等和住房财富不平等程度更低;全面方式的房改方案还对贵阳市内公有制部门和非公有制部门的职工带来了不同的影响,他们之间存在着存量补贴的差异,但两者之间住房不平等程度的差异较小。上述结论为我国进一步的住房制度改革提供了重要启迪:一是应处理好政府和市场的关系,要发挥市场的效率及其在资源配置中的基础性作用,而政府的政策要坚持公平导向;二是应鼓励地方积极试点,促进多种模式相互竞争,从而选取更有利于全国推广的房改模式。

Great achievements have been made in China's housing reform with the orientation of the monetization of housing distribution since 1998.At the same time,there are still some lessons to be learned.There are two different patterns of housing reform:one is the gradual one implemented in the majority of the country and the other is the comprehensive housing reform piloted in Guizhou Province.The main difference between them is whether to redistribute the stock assets of public housing.Guiyang's housing reform practice provides a unique natural experiment for studying the impact of these two different patterns of housing reform on housing equality.Based on the data of the China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS)from 1989 to 2011 and other data of city statistical yearbooks,this paper uses PSM-DID model to test the impact of housing reform patterns on housing equality.The result shows that compared with the gradual pattern,the comprehensive housing reform can improve housing consumption,promote real estate investment,keep house price relatively stable,and lower the housing inequality of consumption and wealth.The comprehensive housing reform also has different impacts on different groups working in the sectors of public ownership or non-public ownership in Guiyang,but the gap of their housing inequality is low.On this basis,this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions under an equity lens and summarizes the experience of local pilot projects.