徐州轨道交通建设对房价的影响——基于空间双重差分模型

Influence of Xuzhou rail transit construction on surrounding housing price:based on the spatial DID model

关于城市轨道交通对房价的影响,现有研究未从理论上分析轨道交通对房价影响的作用机制,且实证中未考虑空间相关性.本文系统构建并分析城市轨道交通建设对房价影响的作用机制,并以淮海经济区中心城市徐州为例进行实证研究,用空间双重差分模型考察轨道交通对房价影响的时空效应.结果表明:城市轨道交通对房价的作用过程分为效应产生阶段和市场对效应感知与转化阶段;徐州轨道交通临近开通时对房价产生显著影响,导致徐州房价上涨610元/m 2;轨道1号线的建设对房地产市场的效应已经充分转化到房价上,2号线和3号线的效应还未充分释放.

Although the studies about the impact of urban rail transit construction on housing price have already been existed,the mechanism of this impact has not been deeply analyzed theoretically in the available studies,neither considered spatial correlation that can destroy the accuracy of the results.Therefore,the influence mechanism of urban rail transit construction on housing price is constructed and analyzed,then Xuzhou which is the central city of Huaihai is taken as an example for empirical research,and the difference in difference(DID)model is used to investigate the spatial-temporal effect model of Xuzhou rail transit s influence on housing price.The results show that the influences of urban rail transit on housing price can be divided into two stages:effect generation stage and market perception and transformation of effects stage.And Xuzhou rail transit has a significant impact on the overall housing prices when it is about to open,that is transit opening can make estate price increased by 610 yuan/m 2.Moreover,the impact of the construction of line 1 on the real estate market has been fully transferred to housing price,while the impact of line 2 and line 3 has not been fully released.