间断均衡理论视域下我国环保政策变迁研究——基于改革开放以来的政策文本分析

A Research on China's Environmental Policy Changes from the Perspective of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory——An Analysis Based on the Policy Text Since the Reform and Opening Up

基于间断均衡理论,采用文本分析法,借助质性分析软件QSR NVivo 12,探究改革开放40年来我国环保政策的变迁规律,继而揭示其变迁的驱动因素。研究发现,我国环保政策变迁历经了三个政策均衡期与两个政策间断期,并呈现出预防性应对的未来趋势,体现了长期稳定与偶然突变的间断均衡规律。顶层主体注意力、社会公众反馈及内容要素突破性创新作为环保政策变迁的主要动力因素,是结合中国政策实践对西方间断均衡理论制度性要素的合理修正,修正后的模型能够有效解释我国政策变迁的逻辑。

Based on the theory of punctuated equilibrium,text analysis method and qualitative analysis software QSR NVivo 12 are used to explore the changes of China's environmental protection policy in the past 40 years to reveal the driving factors affecting such changes.It is found in the study that China's environmental protection policy changes have experienced three policy equilibrium periods and two policy punctuated periods with a future trend of preventive response,which reflects the punctuated equilibrium law of long-term stability and accidental mutation.Top-level subject attention,public feedback and content elements breakthrough innovation as the main driving force for environmental policy changes are reasonable corrections of the institutional factors of western intermittent equilibrium theory combined with Chinese policy practice.The revised model can effectively explain the logic of China's policy changes.