摘要
借助于VAR模型探讨货币供给、物价波动与房地产投资三者之间的联动关系。研究结论表明:(1)三个变量之间的联动关系较为复杂,当受到外界冲击时,难以使系统最终回归到初始状态;(2)三个变量都不具有较强的自我修正能力;(3)货币政策、价格波动与房地产投资之间的联动性关系不对称;(4)价格指数要比房地产投资敏感,房地产投资拉低货币供给,但货币供给刺激房地产投资。
The paper discusses the linkage among money supply,price fluctuation and real estate investment with the VAR model.The conclusions are as follows:(1)the linkage among the three variables is complex,while impacted by an external,it is difficult to make the system return to the initial state;(2)the self-correcting ability of the three variables is weak;(3)the linkage relationship between monetary policy,price fluctuation and real estate investment is asymmetric;(4)price index is more sensitive than real estate investment,real estate investment pulls down the money supply,but the money supply stimulates real estate investment.
作者
陈海龙
CHEN Hailong(School of Statistics and Data Science,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Wulumuqi 830012,China;School of Statistics and Management,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《建筑经济》
北大核心
2020年第5期9-14,共6页
Construction Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71563048,71864034)
博士后基金面上项目(2016M602948XB)。
关键词
货币政策
物价波动
房地产投资
联动关系
VAR模型
monetary policy
price fluctuation
real estate investment
linkage relationship
VAR model
