中国经济增长的空间分异为何存在?——一个空间经济学的解释

Why Does the Spatial Differentiation of China's Economic Growth Exist?——An Interpretation of Spatial Economics

要素在产业与空间上的错配造成中国经济增长的空间分异,并影响了区域协调发展向更深层次推进。本文在空间经济学框架下构建了一个经济增长的理论模型,利用2004—2014年中国277个地级市及以上城市面板数据,分别从全国层面、四大区域、不同发展阶段、不同城市规模以及考虑空间关联性等角度对经济增长空间分异的理论机制进行验证。研究表明经济增长的空间分异来源于要素结构与产业关联、城市规模与产业结构、市场规模与产业选择的三个匹配机制。要素结构与产业关联的正效应在劳均资本相对占优时才会发生,城市规模则通过相对最优城市规模“门槛效应”影响了与产业关联的正效应,市场规模与产业结构“服务业化”正相关。发展生产性服务业是大城市提高经济比重的关键,中小城市则应重点构建符合本地优势的工业体系。本文从要素空间匹配的视角为区域协调发展、经济空间优化和城市产业分工提供了理论依据与经验证据,也为地区经济转型提供了政策启示。

Since the acceleration of urbanization in China caused by its reform and opening up in 1978,the level of China's economic modernization has constantly improved.However,as in other countries,large regional disparities continue to restrict China's economic development.To solve this problem,an objective analysis of the spatial differentiation of economic growth is necessary to develop policies that promote coordinated regional development.The origin of economic spatial disparity lies in the spatial distribution of the factors that affect economic growth.This dispersion reduces the effectiveness of the agglomeration economy,creating spatial mismatches.The mismatching factor has dual heterogeneity.Previous studies focus on enterprises or industrial sectors(Hsieh&Klenow,2009;Restuccia&Rogerson,2013;Behrens et al.,2014)and rarely consider spatial mismatching and its mechanism.This paper clarifies the relationship between unbalanced distribution and industrial agglomeration,and how it affects regional economic growth.The paper first develops a model using spatial economics.Then,panel data from 277 Chinese cities(2004~2014)are used to verify the theoretical model of the spatial differentiation of economic growth at the national level and between four regions.The model considers different urban development stages,different urban sizes,and spatial dependence.To eliminate the effects of endogeneity and other factors,Roodman's(2009)one-step system GMM method is used,which applies a robust standard error to compare the mixed OLS and fixed effect panel model(FE)approaches.The results show that the spatial differentiation is driven by three matching mechanisms:factor structure and industrial linkage,urban scale and industrial structure,and market scale and industrial selection.There is a positive correlation between factor structure and productive service industry proportion when the labor average capital is relatively dominant.Urban size moderates the positive effect of industrial links through the threshold effect.Market size is positively related to service industrialization.Hence,developing productive services is essential in a metropolis,and it is wise for small and medium-sized cities to establish appropriate industrial systems with relative local advantages.To test the robustness of our findings,we change the time interval of the data samples,eliminate cities with high administrative levels,and use urban night lighting data to replace urban GDP.The results of these tests indicate that our main conclusions are robust and reliable.This paper makes the following contributions.First,it expands the theoretical understanding of factor mismatch by considering its spatial dimension.Second,it develops a spatial general equilibrium model of two regions and three industries that integrates industrial structure,the agglomeration effect,and factor structure.Third,the paper divides urban industries into three categories(leading industry,related industry,and basic industry),further revealing the mechanisms for transferring labor and capital between industrial sectors.Our results have clear policy implications.Specifically,the spatial efficiency of economic growth and spatial differentiation could be improved by solving the spatial mismatch effect in different regions.First,the allocation effect of the factor structure in an industry and economic externalities are both significant for economic growth,and neither should be neglected.Second,the construction of regional coordination mechanisms should be based on factor structure and industrial agglomeration.Third,regional economic transformation and upgrades depend on the local relationships between industry and services.Fourth,mismatching may be caused by both market and non-market factors,so policy makers should“adhere to the principle of combining market leading and government guiding”to distinguish and address local types of mismatches.