中国省以下政府间财政收入分配:理论与证据

Distribution of Fiscal Revenue among Sub-provincial Governments in China:Theory and Evidence

党的十九大报告提出了“财力协调、区域均衡”的要求,本文尝试分析此要求下省以下政府间财政收入分配的两个原则,并构造了一个包含分税、支出责任划分和转移支付的理论模型,以为此提供理论基础。本文采用省级和地市级两套面板数据,逐级检验了我国省以下政府间一般公共预算收入和四个主要税种收入的分配实践是否总体上落实了两个原则。实证结果表明:(1)第一原则在各上级政府的一般公共预算收入分配中都得到了落实,但在四个主要税种收入分配的落实上存在差异;(2)第二原则在各上级政府的财政收入分配中均未得到落实;(3)两个原则的落实情况在东中西部三类地区之间存在差异。本文为我国省以下政府间财政收入分配改革提供了参考。

The current reform of the Chinese fiscal system has two aims:financial coordination and regional balance.This paper reveals two principles underlying the implementation of fiscal revenue distribution in sub-provincial governments based on two documents issued by the State Council in 1993 and 2002:“the greater the proportion of higher-level government expenditure responsibility,the higher the concentration of fiscal revenue”,and“the greater the degree of imbalance in per-capita fiscal revenue in the districts under the jurisdiction,the higher the concentration of fiscal revenue”.According to existing research,the distribution of fiscal revenue among sub-provincial governments is chaotic.Each province has its own distribution pattern.This paper does not compare the varying patterns of fiscal revenue distribution in sub-provincial governments,but instead examines whether the two principles are generally implemented.If the two principles are widely implemented,it is reasonable for each province to have its own implementation characteristics.This paper has two major parts:a theoretical analysis and an empirical test.In the theoretical analysis,we construct a model of tax sharing,division of expenditure responsibility,and intergovernmental transfers.The model provides a theoretical foundation for the two principles.Then,provincial-level and municipal-level data sets and the SYS-GMM and instrumental variable GMM estimation methods are used to provide empirical support for the model.The theoretical model is based on Cai&Treisman(2005).The data,which cover 26 provinces,304 municipal-level cities,and about 2500 county-level districts in China,are collated from the China Financial Yearbook,China Statistical Yearbook,China Regional Economic Statistical Yearbook,China City Yearbook,Local Financial Statistics,China Finance 60 Years,and the Financial Statistics of Prefectures,Cities and Counties.The main findings of the analysis are as follows.The first principle is implemented in the distribution of general public budget revenue in all of the provincial and municipal governments,but there are structural differences in the four major tax revenues.The first principle is implemented in the distribution of VAT revenue at the provincial and municipal levels,but it is only implemented in the distribution of revenue from business tax and personal income tax at the municipal level.The distribution of revenue from corporate income tax at both levels is not implemented according to the first principle.There are two possible reasons for these results.First,some provinces do not participate in the distribution of business tax and personal income tax revenue at the provincial level,and second,the distribution patterns are complex.The second principle is not implemented in the fiscal revenue of all of the provincial and municipal governments.Finally,there are structural differences in the implementation of the two principles in the three regions.The first principle is implemented at the municipal level in the eastern region,but the second principle is not.In the central region,neither principle is implemented at the municipal level.In the western region,both principles are implemented at the municipal level.By comparing the time-varying trend of the average per-capita fiscal income imbalance among the three regions,we find that the western region has a more severe imbalance between districts than the other two regions.This may force governments in the western region to give more consideration to the imbalance when they distribute fiscal revenue.These findings can guide forthcoming reforms of fiscal revenue distribution among sub-provincial governments in China.This paper makes two main contributions.First,it reveals two critical principles of fiscal revenue distribution among sub-provincial governments that can contribute to financial coordination and regional balance.In addition,a theoretical model is developed that provides a theoretical foundation for the two principles.Second,this paper provides empirical evidence for the extent to which the two principles are used in the distribution of general public budget revenue and four major tax revenues among sub-provincial governments.