劳动生产率、鲍莫尔病效应与区域结构转型

Labor Productivity,Baumol's Disease Effects and Transformation of Regional Structure

中国产业结构转型的一个典型特征是服务业发展相对滞后且在区域间显著失衡。本文建立了一个基于广义可加型偏好的多部门多地区一般均衡模型,在理论上和定量上研究了劳动生产率对中国区域结构转型的影响。模型中服务业比重变化可以被分解为工农业劳动生产率提高导致服务业比重扩大的工农业鲍莫尔病效应和服务业劳动生产率提高导致服务业比重缩小的服务业鲍莫尔病效应,服务业发展是这两个影响方向相反的鲍莫尔病效应相减的结果。在使用中国省级数据估计模型参数的基础上,对模型的数值模拟较好拟合了中国各地区服务业发展趋势。反事实模拟表明,工农业鲍莫尔病和服务业鲍莫尔病的影响均非常显著,且影响程度存在区域性差异,从东部地区、中部和东北地区,再到西部地区,工农业鲍莫尔病的影响逐渐减弱,服务业鲍莫尔病的影响逐渐增强。基于这些结论,本文为中国通过加快提升服务业比重推动结构转型升级、缩小区域发展差距和实现高质量发展提出了具体政策建议。

A salient feature of China's structural transformation is the lagged and unbalanced development of the service industry.This paper builds a multi-sector and multi-region general equilibrium model with general addlog preference to quantify the effect of labor productivity growth on China's regional structural transformation.We show that the changes in the share of services can be decomposed into the Baumol disease effect of the goods sector that increases the share of services due to the labor productivity growth,and the Baumol disease effect of the services sector that decreases the share of services resulting from the labor productivity growth.The development of the service industry is the result of the difference between these two diverse effects.On the basis of the parameters estimated from China's province-level data,the calibrations of our model captures well the trends of the rise of the service industry across regions.Counterfactual experiments show that the influences of these two Baumol disease effects significantly differ across regions.From the eastern to middle region,and then from the northeast to western region,the Baumol disease effect of the goods sector reinforces and the Baumol disease effect of the service sector weakens.Based on the these findings,we discuss the policy implications about how China pushes structural transformation,reduces the development gap across regions,and achieves high-quality development by rapidly increasing the share of the service industry.