数字普惠金融如何影响实体经济的发展——基于系统GMM模型和中介效应检验的分析

How the Digital Inclusive Finance Affects the Development of the Real Economy——Analysis Based on System GMM Model and Mediation Effect Test

基于中国2011-2017年省级面板数据,运用系统GMM估计方法和中介效应模型,研究数字普惠金融对实体经济的影响,同时检验传统金融发展、消费和科技创新在数字普惠金融影响实体经济过程中的传导作用机制。研究发现,数字普惠金融对于实体经济的发展存在显著的促进作用,传统金融发展、消费水平以及科技创新具有一定的传导作用,但表现为遮掩效应。促进实体经济发展的关键在于提高数字普惠金融的发展水平,同时还应推动传统金融转型、刺激消费,推动科技创新,形成一条可持续的实体经济发展道路。

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2011 to 2017,this paper studies the impact of digital inclusive finance on the real economy by using the systematic GMM model and the mediating effect model,and tests the transmission mechanism of the impact of digital financial inclusion on the development of the real economy through the traditional financial development,consumption and technological innovation.It is found that digital inclusive finance has a significant promoting effect on the development of the real economy,and the traditional financial development,consumption level and technological innovation have a certain transmission effect,but it is manifested as suppressing effect.Therefore,the key to promoting the development of real economy lies in improving the development level of digital inclusive finance,promoting the transformation of traditional finance,stimulating consumption,promoting technological innovation and forming a sustainable development path of real economy.