财税政策不确定性的衡量——基于适应性学习预期的分析框架

Measuring Fiscal Policy Uncertainty

我国财税政策重视短期矛盾调节而忽视长期稳定性,但鲜有研究论及财税政策不确定性问题,其中财税政策不确定性的衡量是重点也是难点。本文在适应性学习预期的分析框架下,对市场主体不同政策学习模式进行甄别,发现我国市场主体倾向于采取重视近期经验的持续性学习策略组成财税政策预期,并且政策预期不能向理性预期收敛,证明我国存在财税政策不确定性。然后,在此基础上构建相应指标来衡量我国财税政策不确定性程度。结果显示,由于财税政策规则不具备动态稳定性以及由此导致预期模式的不稳定,我国财税政策不确定性呈现内生性和系统性特征。本文进一步通过财税政策不确定性的宏观经济效应检验,发现其对生产、物价、出口等产生负面冲击,并且对生产导致符合经典理论的“超调”效应,在一定程度佐证了本文财税政策不确定性指标的一致性。最后,本文对治理财税政策不确定性提出相应政策建议。

The fiscal policy in China attaches importance to addressing short-term problems but pays little attention to the stability in the long term,and little research has been conducted on fiscal policy uncertainty,in which measuring the uncertainty is a key and difficult point.Within the framework of adaptive learning expectation,this paper studies diffident learning models and finds that market entities in China tend to use the continuous learning strategy that emphasizes recent experiences to form the fiscal policy expectation which is not convergent to the rational expectation,and thus proves that the fiscal policy uncertainty exists in China.On top of that,the fiscal policy uncertainty is measured,and the result shows that the fiscal policy uncertainty in China is endogenous and systematic because the rule of fiscal policy is unstable dynamically and thus the expectancy model is also not stable.This paper finds that the fiscal policy uncertainty leads to a negative shock to production,price and export,and it produces the overshoot to production,which proves the consistence of the uncertainty index in this paper to a certain degree.At the end,this paper offers policy suggestions on the governance of fiscal policy uncertainty.