地区竞争、土地供给结构与中国城市住房价格

Regional Competition,Land Supply Structure and Urban Housing Price in China

为了分析地区竞争下地方政府间土地供给结构的策略互动及其对住房价格的影响,本文在归纳梳理中国土地供应法规特征的基础上,构建一个同时考虑居住用地需求和工业用地需求的两城市模型,探讨地方政府干预土地供给结构的动机及其经济后果,并基于2006—2015年城市面板数据对提出的理论假说进行检验。研究发现,在城市建设用地总量受约束的条件下,地方政府有激励以减少居住用地为代价提高工业用地供给,进行招商引资竞争;与市场起主导作用的情形相比,地方政府干预土地供给结构时,工业用地的供应量更高,居住用地的供应量则偏低,工业地价与居住用地的价格差异增大;地方政府对土地供给结构的干预,从供给和需求两方面共同推高了房价。此外,地方政府干预土地供给结构会影响到相邻地区的供地策略。研究对加快推进房地产市场长效机制改革、从供给侧解决高房价问题具有启示意义。

This paper analyzes the construction land supply strategy of local governments in the context of regional competition and its impact on housing prices.On the basis of summarizing the characteristics of China's construction land supply laws and regulations,this paper establishes a two-city model including housing land demand and production land demand,discusses the motivation and economic consequences of the local governments'intervention in the land supply structure,and then tests the theoretical hypothesis proposed based on the urban panel data from 2006 to 2015.The model analysis shows that local governments have incentives to attract investment by reducing the proportion of residential land and increasing that of industrial land,when the total amount of construction land is limited.Compared with the market competition mode,the industrial land price will be higher,while residential land price will be obviously lower if local governments control the land supply structure.Economic development and population inflow drive up housing demand,while the residential land supply is declining,pushing up the housing price from both supply and demand ends.In addition,local governments'intervention in the land supply structure will further affect the land supply strategy in neighboring areas.This paper has reference value for accelerating reform of the long-term mechanism for real estate market and solving the problem of high housing price from the supply side.