基于经济阈值效应的地方政府举债压力弹性研究

Research on Elasticity of Local Government Debt Pressure Based on Economic Threshold Effect

地区所处经济阶段差异会使地方政府行为激励产生异质性,进而影响地区举债压力弹性。从经济阈值效应的独特视角,探究不同经济门槛区间压力波动引起的地方政府举债行为变化,利用举债压力弹性解释地方政府债务规模扩张成因。基于我国283个地级市数据,构建门槛面板模型对理论假设进行经验检验。研究发现:从低到高的经济阈值区间下地方政府举债压力弹性翻倍增长,尤其是在第三经济阈值区间,举债规模扩张呈现加速度特征;财政压力对地方政府举债的刺激作用,只有在第三经济阈值区间才会得以释放;“土地财政”的存在强化了地方政府举债对压力变化的敏感度,并助推了地方政府举债压力的弹性波动。经济处于发达阶段的地方政府的举债压力敏感度,显著高于处于欠发达阶段的地方政府,因此,高水平的城市举债压力弹性及其潜在的债务风险应成为下一步关注的焦点。

The differences in the economic stages of the regions make the behavior incentives of the local governments heterogeneous,thus affecting the elasticity of the regional borrowing pressure.From the unique perspective of economic threshold effect,this paper explores the changes of local government borrowing behavior caused by pressure fluctuations in different economic threshold intervals,and uses borrowing pressure elasticity to explain the causes of local government debt scale expansion.Based on the data of 283 prefecture-level cities in China,this paper constructs a threshold panel model to empirically test the theoretical hypothesis.The results show that the elasticity of local government borrowing pressure doubles under the economic threshold range from low to high,especially in the third economic threshold range,the expansion of borrowing scale shows acceleration characteristics.The stimulating effect of fiscal pressure on local government borrowing can only be released in the third economic threshold range.The existence of land finance has strengthened the sensitivity of local government borrowing to pressure changes,boosting the elastic fluctuation of local government borrowing pressure.This study shows that the sensitivity of local government borrowing to pressure in the economically developed stage is significantly higher than that in the less developed stage.The high-level elasticity of urban borrowing pressure and its potential debt risks should be the focus of further attention.