金融发展对经济增长的缓释效应及其实现机制

The Mitigative Effect of Financial Development on Economic Growth and Its Realization Mechanism

使用系统广义矩估计方法,选取我国省级面板数据,通过实证检验刻画金融发展对经济增长的缓释效应及其实现机制。实证结果表明:在经济政策不确定性条件下,金融发展对经济增长的正向作用形成了独特的缓释效应,选择替代变量进行稳健性检验后依然显著存在。渠道检验显示:缓释效应主要通过金融摩擦渠道和投资渠道进行传导。进一步检验发现:不同经济发展水平和不同产业结构的地区的缓释效应存在差异,在中西部和东北地区的作用效果相对更大,第三产业占比较高的地区影响更强。为此,应重视我国各地区金融发展的积极作用,大力推进金融供给侧结构性改革,在新时代发挥好金融发展对经济增长的缓释功能。

In this paper,using the system GMM method and selecting China’s provincial panel data,we clearly depict the effect and its implementation mechanism through empirical examination.The empirical results show that under the uncertainty of economic policy the positive effect of financial development on economic growth has formed a special mitigative effect and it still exists significantly when alternative variables are chosen for robustness testing.Channel inspections show that this effect is mainly transmitted through financial friction channels and investment channels.And further tests find that this mitigative effect is different in regions with different levels of economic development and industrial structures,which is relatively larger in the central,western and northeastern regions of China as well as stronger in regions with a higher tertiary industry.Our research suggests that,based on the dynamic changes of macro-environment,we should face up to the positive role of China’s financial development and actively promote structural reform of the financial supply-side,in order to give full play to the mitigative function of financial development on economic growth in the new era.