流行病影响下的学校复学风险评估方法研究--以新冠肺炎为例

Research on Risk Assessment Method of Back-to-School under the Influence of Epidemic--Taking COVID-19 as an Example

为了综合评估在疫情期间由于学校复学造成新冠肺炎疫情蔓延扩散的风险,辅助开学决策,需要建立一套风险评估方法。将敏感性引入传统风险概念,应用文献研究方法从三个风险的逻辑维度确定影响学校疫情风险的因素,提出学校疫情风险体系的逻辑框架;接着基于逻辑框架,应用Delphi、AHP等方法,构建学校新冠肺炎疫情风险指标体系并计算各指标权重;然后应用风险三维分级原理构建分级评价模型;最后以形成的评估方法进行实证分析研究,建立起一套基于13个指标的学校新冠肺炎疫情风险评估方法。学校新冠肺炎疫情风险指标易于测量,逻辑关联性强,建立的评估方法具有一定的可行性与实用性。

In order to comprehensively assess the risk of the spread of COVID-19 caused by school resumption during the epidemic period,and assist Relevant departments making decision about when students start school,a risk assessment method was established.The sensibility factor was introduced into the concept of risk.The factors affecting school epidemic risk was determined from the three logical dimensions of risk by literature researching,and the logical framework of school’s COVID-19 risk index system was proposed.Then,based on the logical framework,using Delphi and AHP methods to establish risk index system for schools’ COVID-19 and calculate weight of each index.And a hierarchical evaluation model was built by the principle of three-dimensional risk classification.In the end,the hierarchical evaluation model was used for empirical analysis.A risk assessment for COVID-19 in school based on 13 indicators has been formed.The index system is easy to measure and logical.The evaluation method is feasible and practical.