美国农产品出口贸易及其影响因素评析

Analysis of U.S.farm export trade and its driving forces

为研究美国农产品贸易长期维持顺差的原因,运用文献研究法和指数计算法,分析2000~2018年美国农产品出口数据,总结美国农产品出口贸易的发展情况,并评析其影响因素。美国农产品贸易出口主要特征有:出口总量持续增长且始终保持顺差地位;出口产品结构相对稳定,大豆是最主要的出口农产品;出口市场相对集中,加拿大、墨西哥、欧盟及中日韩是最主要出口市场;美国农产品对华增长较快。研究认为,美国农产品出口持续增长的主要动因包括发达的农业、较高的农产品国际竞争力、有利的汇率走势和长期的农业补贴政策;与此同时,美国农产品的出口依存度高,出口贸易受国际市场需求制约明显,因此农产品市场准入和市场开放始终是美国贸易谈判的重要议题,美国对他国的贸易限制措施对其农产品出口有负面影响。

In order to analyze the reasons for the long-term trade surplus of agricultural products in the United States,this paper adopts the literature research method and index calculation method,analyzes the export data of U.S.agricultural products from 2000 to 2018,summarizes the development of U.S.agricultural export trade,and evaluates its influencing factors.The study believes that the main characteristics of the U.S.agricultural trade export include the following:continuous increase in total exports and a consistent surplus;relatively stable export product structure,with soybean being the major export agricultural product;relatively concentrated export market,with Canada,Mexico,the European Union,and China,Japan and South Korea being the largest export destinations;relatively rapid growth of U.S.agricultural product export to China.The main factors driving sustained growth of U.S.agricultural exports are advanced agricultural industry,advantaged competitiveness of agricultural products,favorable exchange rates,and long-lasting agricultural subsidy policies.Meanwhile,due to its high export dependence ratio,U.S.agricultural export trade is severely restricted by global market demands.Therefore,agricultural market access and market opening have always been the priority issues on U.S.trade negotiation agenda.Consequently,U.S.trade restrictions on other countries will inevitably result in negative effects on its own agricultural exports.