2017年A省电子计算机断层扫描设备配置的空间计量分析

Spatial econometric analysis of computed tomography configuration in A Province in 2017

目的探讨A省电子计算机断层扫描(computed tomography,CT)设备的空间分布情况,以及CT设备配置与经济发展、卫生资源特征之间的关系,为乙类大型医用设备配置提供依据。方法收集2017年A省各地级市的CT设备配置数量和城市基本特征数据,开展空间自相关分析,并拟合空间回归模型。结果截至2017年,A省每百万人口CT设备配置量为13.29台,全局和局部空间自相关分析结果显示,CT设备配置量在空间上呈正相关。多重线性回归分析结果显示,模型残差具有空间自相关性(Moran’sⅠ=0.22,P<0.01),需拟合空间回归模型。根据空间依赖性检验结果,选择空间滞后模型,结果显示,每百万人口CT设备配置量与当地国内生产总值、诊疗人次数、三级医院数正相关,且差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论空间回归模型用于研究CT设备配置与区域基本特征的关系的效果较好。配置乙类大型医用设备时,应考虑社会经济发展水平、临床实际需求和医疗服务能力。

Objective To explore the spatial distribution of computed tomography(CT)and the relationship of CT configuration with the characteristics of economic development and health resources in A Province,and to provide a basis for the configuration of class-B large-scale medical equipment.Methods Data of CT configuration quantity and basic urban characteristics of each prefecture-level city in A Province in 2017 were collected to conduct spatial autocorrelation analysis and fit spatial regression model.Results By 2017,there were 13.29 CT per million people in A Province.The results of global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed positive spatial correlation.The results of multiple linear regression analysis showed that the model residuals had spatial autocorrelation(Moran’sⅠ=0.22,P<0.01),and the spatial regression model needed to be fitted.According to the results of spatial dependence test,the spatial lag model was selected.The results showed that the allocation amount of CT per million population was positively correlated with the local gross domestic product,the number of hospital visits and the number of tertiary hospitals,and the regression coefficients were statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion The spatial regression model is effective in studying the relationship between CT configuration and the basic regional characteristics.In allocating class-B large-scale medical equipment,social and economic development levels,actual clinical demands,and medical service capacity should be taken into consideration.