美联储缩表对我国经济增长的溢出效应

The Spillover Effect of the Fed’s Contraction on China’s Economic Growth

深入研究美联储缩表计划的实施对我国经济增长产生的溢出效应,将有助于我国从利率政策、汇率政策等方面制定应对措施。选取2008年1月至2019年7月的同比月度数据,运用VAR模型分别从汇率、利率、外汇储备传导渠道等方面进行分析。研究表明,美联储缩表计划的实施抑制了我国经济的发展,对股票价格的影响也比较大。结合目前国际经济形势及我国经济发展状况提出相关政策建议。

An in-depth study of the spillover effect of the reduction plan of US Federal Reserve on China’s economic growth is helpful for China to take good measures in terms of interest rate policy and exchange rate policy. This paper selected the year-on-year monthly data from January of 2008 to July of 2019, and used the VAR model to respectively analyze the exchange rate, interest rate, foreign exchange reserve and transmission channels, and so on. The research shows that the reduction plan implementation of the US Federal Reserve inhibits the development of China’s economy, and also has a great impact on the stock price. Relevant policy recommendations are proposed in light of the current international economic situation and the state of China’s economic development.