后疫情时代财政收支短期挑战及长期形势展望

Short-term Challenges and Long-term Outlook for Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure in the Post-epidemic Era

新冠肺炎疫情给财政收支形势带来短期挑战,国内外风险交织加剧长期经济发展与宏观调控的不确定性,财政收支平衡与财政可持续性受到挑战。财政收支压力加大的背景下,财政亟需寻求政策调整和制度创新来应对长短期的挑战。本文基于2019年财政收支发展趋势的分析,结合疫情冲击给国内外经济基本面和财政状况造成的影响,展望后疫情时代的短期和中长期的财政收支形势,提出应对不确定性的财政应急体系和治理体系的构建框架,为本次新冠肺炎疫情的政策应对及未来财政政策的优化路径提供参考。

The COVID-19 has brought short-term challenges to the fiscal rev enue and expenditure situation.Intertwining risks at home and abroad have exacerbated the uncertainty of long-term economic development and macroeconomic regulation.Fiscal revenue and expenditure balance and fiscal sustainability have been challenged.Given the increasing pressure on fiscal revenues and expenditures,finances urgently need to seek policy adjustments and institutional innovations to meet long-term and short-term challenges.Based on the analysis of the historical development trend of fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2019,this paper combines the impact of the epidemic on domestic and foreign economic fundamentals and fiscal conditions,forecasts the short-term and long-term fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in the post-epidemic era,and proposes the framework of the emergency system and governance system,hoping to provide a reference for the policy response to the COVID-19 and the optimization of fisc al policies.