全球经济环境及中国宏观经济形势分析

Analysis of the Global Economic and China's Macroeconomic Situation

IMF将2019年全球经济增长率下调至2.9%,是2008年金融经济危机以来的最低水平,也是自2017年全球经济同步回升以来的一次严重下滑。发达经济体正面临日本式的低增长、低通胀和超低利率时期;美国经济增速明显放缓,欧元区经济持续疲弱,衰退风险加重,投资信心减弱,存在通缩风险。新兴经济体内部产业结构重塑、分化加剧。2019年中国GDP增速逐步回落至6.1%。中国经济下行压力外部来自于中美贸易战的持续冲击,内部则是去杠杆过程中的资金循环受到阻碍。预计2020年中国经济增速将继续走低。

the IMF lowered its global growth rate to 2.9 percent in 2019,which is the lowest level since the 2008 financial and e-conomic crisis and a serious decline since the synchronized recovery in the global economy in 2017.Developed economies are facing a period of low Japanese-style growth,low inflation,and ultra-low interest rates;the US economy is experiencing a marked slowdown,the Eurozone’s economy remains weak,recession risk increases,investment confidence weakens and deflation risks.The industrial structure of emerging economies has been reshaped and diverged.In 2019,China's GDP growth rate gradually dropped to 6.1%.The downward pressure on China's economy comes from the continuous impact of the trade war between China and the United States externally,while the capital circulation in the process of deleveraging is blocked internally.China's economic growth is expected to continue to decline in 2020.