基于投入产出模型对机场出租车决策的研究

针对机场出租车司机决策及资源配置问题,文章综合考虑出租车司机和乘客双重效益,把出租车司机的决策过程看作对投入产出预估进而决策的过程,建立投入产出系统及向量法决策模型,应用Poisson分布、基于Delphi法改进后的AHP等方法量化各指标,分析得到决策方案。并选取2017年首都机场的实际相关数据,结合圈层外推法,对模型进行检验,验证了模型的有效性。该模型可更好地对机场出租车司机的决策进行量化研究,也可以为机场制定相关政策提供可靠依据。

Aiming at the problem of airport taxi driver decision-making and resource allocation,this paper comprehensively considers the dual benefits of taxi driver and passenger,regards the taxi driver’s decision-making process as the process of input-output prediction and decision-making,establishes the input-output system and vector decision-making model,quantifies each index by using Poisson distribution and improved AHP based on Delphi method,and analyzes the decision-making scheme.The actual data of the Capital Airport in 2017 was selected,and the model was tested in combination with the sphere extrapolation method to verify the validity of the model.The model can better quantify the taxi driver’s decision at the airport,and can also provide a reliable basis for the airport to formulate related policies.